Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first. The deal screens supportable under current assumptions, subject to evidence-based diligence. The deal can advance, but the next step is not to assume the upside; it is to lock down the evidence that protects residual land value and actual after-land profit.
Evidence to confirm before commitment
Confirm the budget with current contractor pricing before waiving diligence.
Lock sale-price evidence before treating upside revenue as bankable.
Confirm servicing, frontage, and civil scope before reducing contingency.
Resolve the top risk with evidence: Market softening.
Why the recommendation matters
Residual land value: Maximum supportable land value after development costs and target profit.
Actual profit: Estimated profit after paying the current asking/acquisition price.
Approx. IRR: Screening-grade annualized return estimate; not a full cash-flow IRR.
Base margin
14.5%
Equity required
$410,000
Total cost
$2,650,000
Score
95
Deal Decision
PROCEED
Assessment Basis: SiteKillSwitch default
Confidence
HIGH
Margin Safety
Strong
Primary Risk
Market softening
Profit Sensitivity
X-axis: sale price change · Y-axis: net profit ($)
Executive Summary
Assessment Basis: SiteKillSwitch default
Decision: PROCEED (HIGH confidence). Economics snapshot: base margin 30% · equity required $662,500 · total project cost $2,650,000. All-in break-even per unit ($662,500) remains the primary watch item for this assessed scenario (SiteKillSwitch default). Risk signal: MODERATE. Primary sensitivity is exit price and construction cost discipline. Primary drivers were identified (3). Focus underwriting on the top driver set before committing to the construction cost stack. Diligence: 3 checks were generated to de-risk key assumptions. Complete Gate 1 (zoning/yield + servicing sanity) before spending materially.
Servicing status: —
Advisor Recommendation
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first. The deal screens supportable under current assumptions, subject to evidence-based diligence. The deal can advance, but the next step is not to assume the upside; it is to lock down the evidence that protects residual land value and actual after-land profit.
Evidence to confirm before commitment
Confirm the budget with current contractor pricing before waiving diligence.
Lock sale-price evidence before treating upside revenue as bankable.
Confirm servicing, frontage, and civil scope before reducing contingency.
Resolve the top risk with evidence: Market softening.
Why the recommendation matters
Residual land value: Maximum supportable land value after development costs and target profit.
Actual profit: Estimated profit after paying the current asking/acquisition price.
Approx. IRR: Screening-grade annualized return estimate; not a full cash-flow IRR.
SiteKillSwitch default Profit Waterfall
Revenue → Cost Drag → Land → Profit
Base Readout
Revenue
$3,800,000
Cost Drag
-$1,300,000
Land
$1,250,000
Profit Verdict
$1,150,00030.3%
Value
Revenue
$3,800,000
Land
$1,250,000
Finance
$50,000
Profit
$1,150,000
Relative magnitudeParity locked
SiteKillSwitch default Sensitivity Analysis
Assessment Basis: SiteKillSwitch default
Profit Curve
X-axis: sale price change · Y-axis: net profit ($)
Sale Price Change
Net Profit
Margin
-10%
$770,000
22.5%
-5%
$960,000
26.6%
0%
$1,150,000
30.3%
+5%
$1,340,000
33.6%
+10%
$1,530,000
36.6%
A 5% decrease reduces profit by 17%.
Risk Assessment
Sale price risk
LOW
How quickly profit disappears when sale assumptions soften.
Cost overrun risk
LOW
Available margin buffer against contractor and escalation variance.
Timeline risk
LOW
Longer holds increase financing drag and delivery risk.
Investment View
Assessment Basis: SiteKillSwitch default
This memo is assessed on SiteKillSwitch default. The deal currently screens as PROCEED with high confidence, but decision quality remains highly dependent on revenue discipline and execution.
Proceed only if
If zoning/yield changes (unit count), rerun immediately.
If contractor budget differs materially from assumptions, rerun immediately.
If exit comps soften materially, rerun with conservative exits.
Do not proceed if
Zoning/yield outcome does not support the assumed unit count.
Servicing or site constraints expand the construction cost stack beyond assumptions.
Exit comps / absorption soften materially versus underwriting.
Decision Confidence Layer
Decision: PROCEED (HIGH confidence). Economics snapshot: base margin 30% · equity required $662,500 · total project cost $2,650,000. All-in break-even per unit ($662,500) remains the primary watch item for this assessed scenario (SiteKillSwitch default). Risk signal: MODERATE. Primary sensitivity is exit price and construction cost discipline. Primary drivers were identified (3). Focus underwriting on the top driver set before committing to the construction cost stack. Diligence: 3 checks were generated to de-risk key assumptions. Complete Gate 1 (zoning/yield + servicing sanity) before spending materially.
Based on current assumptions, this memo reflects the sitekillswitch default basis. Generated 2026-03-03 04:00 PST (America/Vancouver). Refresh the memo whenever the deal record or latest screen changes materially.
Confidence Read
PROCEED / HIGH
At this stage, sitekillswitch default margin is 30%, equity required is about $662,500, total project cost is about $2,650,000, and all-in break-even per unit is $662,500.
Assumption Visibility & Deal Audit
This memo reflects the assumptions captured when the latest screen was promoted into memo generation. Entered fields are shown separately from locked defaults and fields that still need confirmation.
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first. The deal screens supportable under current assumptions, subject to evidence-based diligence. The deal can advance, but the next step is not to assume the upside; it is to lock down the evidence that protects residual land value and actual after-land profit.
Evidence to confirm before commitment
Confirm the budget with current contractor pricing before waiving diligence.
Lock sale-price evidence before treating upside revenue as bankable.
Confirm servicing, frontage, and civil scope before reducing contingency.
Resolve the top risk with evidence: Market softening.
Why the recommendation matters
Residual land value: Maximum supportable land value after development costs and target profit.
Actual profit: Estimated profit after paying the current asking/acquisition price.
Approx. IRR: Screening-grade annualized return estimate; not a full cash-flow IRR.
Purchase price
Entered
$1,250,000
Units
Entered
4
Region
Entered
BC
Finance rate
Default
Financing / holding proxy 4%
Selling costs
Confirm
Needs confirmation
Soft costs
Entered
18.0%
Contingency
Default
5.0%
Servicing status
Confirm
—
Servicing confidence
Confirm
—
Servicing basis
Confirm
—
Audit Notes
Assumptions version
—
Screen / memo basis
Current memo basis: SiteKillSwitch default. Generated 2026-03-03 04:00 PST (America/Vancouver). This memo should be refreshed whenever the deal record or latest screen changes materially.
Default policy
When underwriting inputs are missing, SiteKillSwitch currently falls back to locked institutional defaults such as soft costs 18.0% and contingency 5.0%.
Investment Decision
Assessment Basis: SiteKillSwitch default
PROCEED (HIGH confidence)
PROCEED
Advisor Recommendation
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first. The deal screens supportable under current assumptions, subject to evidence-based diligence. The deal can advance, but the next step is not to assume the upside; it is to lock down the evidence that protects residual land value and actual after-land profit.
Evidence to confirm before commitment
Confirm the budget with current contractor pricing before waiving diligence.
Lock sale-price evidence before treating upside revenue as bankable.
Confirm servicing, frontage, and civil scope before reducing contingency.
Resolve the top risk with evidence: Market softening.
Why the recommendation matters
Residual land value: Maximum supportable land value after development costs and target profit.
Actual profit: Estimated profit after paying the current asking/acquisition price.
Approx. IRR: Screening-grade annualized return estimate; not a full cash-flow IRR.
Advisor Recommendation
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first. The deal screens supportable under current assumptions, subject to evidence-based diligence. The deal can advance, but the next step is not to assume the upside; it is to lock down the evidence that protects residual land value and actual after-land profit.
Evidence to confirm before commitment
Confirm the budget with current contractor pricing before waiving diligence.
Lock sale-price evidence before treating upside revenue as bankable.
Confirm servicing, frontage, and civil scope before reducing contingency.
Resolve the top risk with evidence: Market softening.
Why the recommendation matters
Residual land value: Maximum supportable land value after development costs and target profit.
Actual profit: Estimated profit after paying the current asking/acquisition price.
Approx. IRR: Screening-grade annualized return estimate; not a full cash-flow IRR.
Decision Rationale
Selected scenario margin is 30%.
Selected scenario equity required is $662,500.
Selected scenario total project cost is $2,650,000.
Screening score is 95/100.
Primary Drivers
If zoning/yield changes (unit count), rerun immediately.
If contractor budget differs materially from assumptions, rerun immediately.
If exit comps soften materially, rerun with conservative exits.
Risk View
Zoning/yield outcome does not support the assumed unit count.
Servicing or site constraints expand the construction cost stack beyond assumptions.
Exit comps / absorption soften materially versus underwriting.
Advance to diligence, but lock the evidence first. The deal screens supportable under current assumptions, subject to evidence-based diligence. The deal can advance, but the next step is not to assume the upside; it is to lock down the evidence that protects residual land value and actual after-land profit.
Evidence to confirm before commitment
Confirm the budget with current contractor pricing before waiving diligence.
Lock sale-price evidence before treating upside revenue as bankable.
Confirm servicing, frontage, and civil scope before reducing contingency.
Resolve the top risk with evidence: Market softening.
Why the recommendation matters
Residual land value: Maximum supportable land value after development costs and target profit.
Actual profit: Estimated profit after paying the current asking/acquisition price.
Approx. IRR: Screening-grade annualized return estimate; not a full cash-flow IRR.
Deal Risk Signals (Selected Scenario)
Simple underwriting flags based on the current model outputs.
✔
Margin meets typical threshold (≥15%).
✔
Profit-on-cost is healthy (≥20%).
✔
Break-even is below regional benchmark.
✔
Deal remains profitable at -5% sale price.
Development Budget
Cost composition as a share of total project cost.
Land Purchase
$1,250,000 (47%)
Financing / Holding Cost
$50,000 (2%)
Margin Sensitivity
Sale price per unit sensitivity (costs held constant).
Sale price / unit
Net Revenue
Profit
Margin
$900,000
$3,420,000
$770,000
23%
$950,000
$3,610,000
$960,000
27%
$1,000,000
$3,800,000
$1,150,000
30%
$1,050,000
$3,990,000
$1,340,000
34%
$1,100,000
$4,180,000
$1,530,000
37%
Scenarios
Revenue change versus the base case, and what that does to margin for this build.
Scenario
Revenue vs Base
Margin
Base
0%
30%
Optimized
+5%
34%
Downside
-5%
27%
Margin Waterfall
Net Revenue
$3,800,000
Land Purchase
$1,250,000
Financing / Holding Cost
$50,000
Net Profit
$1,150,000
Capital Stack
Equity
$662,500 (25%)
Debt
$1,987,500 (75%)
Top Drivers
Exit price per unit remains a key underwriting sensitivity. — Tight buffer; comp support is required.
Construction costs + servicing remains a key underwriting sensitivity. — Contractor ROMs and servicing scope can shift materially.
Approvals timeline remains a key underwriting sensitivity. — Carrying costs increase with schedule drift.
Diligence Checks
Confirm zoning/yield and corner cut impacts remains a key underwriting sensitivity.
Servicing assumptions remain a key underwriting sensitivity.